STRATEGY & RESEARCH
Independent macro research and strategic advisory for principals, owners, and boards.
Vancouver · Santiago
Valdivieso & Co. is an independent house for research, strategic advisory, and intellectual work. We study the global macro environment and the long-term forces that shape capital, institutions, and strategic choice.
Our work brings together economics, finance, international political economy, behavioural science, and systems thinking with judgement under uncertainty. We distinguish evidence from inference, and conviction from certainty.
We work selectively with principals, owners, and boards facing decisions that require independent judgement. Our research is original and signed; every material view states the conditions that would cause us to revise it.
Valdivieso & Co. works across the full arc from understanding to action.
We research the forces shaping the world. We advise those responsible for consequential decisions. We develop and advance ideas. And we design systems that help translate sound thinking into effective action.
Foresight is our global macro research platform.
It examines the economic, financial, geopolitical, and institutional forces shaping markets and the wider world, drawing on primary sources, leading research, and independent analysis to build a clearer view of changing conditions, structural forces, and emerging risks.
We work with principals, owners, and boards on decisions that cannot be delegated.
Our advisory work focuses on capital allocation and structure, strategic positioning under uncertainty, and long-term strategy, bringing independent judgement and a global macro perspective to decisions of lasting consequence.
O·700 Works is the intellectual and publishing arm of Valdivieso & Co.
It develops long-form essays, books, frameworks, and other projects concerned with the deeper forces shaping economies, institutions, societies, and human decision-making.
Its purpose is to develop and communicate ideas of broader relevance, deepen understanding, contribute to a wider body of knowledge, and raise the standard of public conversation.
The Long Arc, our ongoing series of essays and long-term ideas, is published through O·700 Works.
ARX develops systems, frameworks, and methods that help individuals and institutions navigate complexity, structure consequential decisions, and act with greater clarity and consistency.
Its work begins where thought meets practice, turning insight into decision architectures, strategic frameworks, knowledge systems, and scenario-based methods that can support effective action under conditions of uncertainty.
We live and act within realities larger than we can fully observe.
Information is incomplete. Perspectives are partial. Conditions change. Yet individuals and institutions must still understand, decide, and act.
Our premise
Disciplined research is the foundation of sound judgement. Sound judgement enables robust action, understood as preserving the capacity to respond across multiple scenarios under uncertainty.
We therefore start with disciplined inquiry, distinguish evidence from inference, and remain conscious of what is known, what is uncertain, and what may change. From there, independent judgement gives form to consequential decisions, ideas can be developed beyond the immediate problem, and systems can turn sound thinking into more consistent action.
This is not a linear formula. It is an iterative discipline. Decisions and actions generate consequences, experience, and new information. Those, in turn, challenge assumptions, refine judgement, and strengthen the next cycle of research, intellectual development, and action.
Understand
Foresight researches the world and develops a clearer understanding of the economic, financial, geopolitical, and institutional forces at work.
Decide
Strategic Advisory applies independent judgement to consequential decisions for principals, owners, and boards.
Advance
O·700 Works develops, publishes, and communicates ideas of broader relevance, intended to deepen understanding and contribute to the wider body of knowledge.
This work is distinct from client-specific advisory and is developed for publication, discussion, and wider intellectual contribution.
Act
ARX translates thought into systems, frameworks, and methods that help individuals and institutions act with greater clarity and consistency under uncertainty.
The cycle is continuous. Action generates new experience and information. That feedback improves understanding, challenges assumptions, and feeds the next cycle from a stronger base of knowledge.
Across this cycle lies a common purpose
To raise the standard of analysis, thought, judgement, and action.
We do not seek certainty where certainty does not exist. We seek better ways of understanding complexity, making consequential choices, and building the intellectual and practical capacity to navigate an uncertain world.
Founder · Managing Director
Sebastian Valdivieso is a global macro strategist, writer, former investment manager, and public commentator. Over more than fifteen years, his career has spanned financial markets, investment strategy, and macroeconomic analysis, including senior roles as Chief Investment Officer and Chief Market Strategist.
He has contributed more than 300 broadcast and print interviews, and his work has taken him across Santiago, London, Oxford, New York, Doha, Vancouver, and other international centres.
His work today combines global macro research with a broader interest in strategic judgement, long-term change, and the design of systems capable of operating under uncertainty. He is Founder and Managing Director of Valdivieso & Co. and writes The Long Arc, published through O·700 Works.